Rainfall and Democracy

Is there a connection between rainfal and democracy? 

Rains + Bad roads + traffic jams = Tension!

It rained quite a bit for the last few days.  Hummingbird took a short video using his mobile (August 30, 2010).

It again rained heavily on August 31, 2010 yet fortunately, there was no traffic jam.  September 1st was a different day.  It didn't rain yet there was heavy traffic on the way to office.  Till the end, Hummingbird could never figure out what was the cause for the traffic jam.  However, he could take a few snaps using his mobile.  

Hummingbird reached office late   Yet he was smart enough to SMS his MD that he saw an investee company's 'building' on the way... and so should 'notionally' be counted as 'On Duty'...

Today was a good day.  For a change, it didn't rain.  It was a local government holiday on account of Gokulashtami and there wasn't much traffic on the roads.  Went to office peacefully.  Roads were almost empty in the morning.  Hummingbird wishes each day to be like this - less traffic on the roads... and peaceful.  Ofcourse, the roads continue to be bad.  Continuous rains haven't battered his spirit.  He is happy that there won't be drinking water problem this year.  Hummingbird hopes that the authorities would do something to restore the roads to a better condition.  

Hummingbird is an eternal optimist.  He still believes the government machinery would work, there would be less and less corruption in future, contractors won't cheat, roads would actually be laid and they would be of good quality and long lasting, entrepreneurs would be honest, politicians won't cheat... Well, Hummingbird is an eternal optimist. 

Rains and more rains...

It has been raining since morning.  Its also quite cool.  From the weather map in Business Line (August 21, 2010), it is clear that it will continue to rain in many parts of the country and more so in the Western parts.

Cloud formation suggests its going to rain heavily

Interestingly, Mumbai has received maximum rainfall (in mm) amongst all 23 weather stations reported by Business Line (August 21, 2010) in terms of departure from normal for the season, though it is No.2 (after Panjim) in terms of total rainfall received since June 1, 2010.

Station	Max	Min	Rain	Total rain	Departure
Mumbai	29	25	10	2420	824
Panjim	30	24	6	2656	468
Ahmedabad	33	26	5	960	422
Hyderabad	32	23	15	581	193
N Delhi	28	26	110	576	128
Chennai	35	27	--	318	51
Bangalore	28	22	--	225	7
Ranchi	32	24	6	405	-379
Patna	33	28	--	385	-270
Lucknow	32	25	35	420	-176
Indore	29	22	--	481	-135
Trivandrum	31	24	--	543	-100
Guwahati	33	26	103	769	-93
Kolkota	32	26	53	793	-51

[Note:  The columns show maximum and minimum temperature in Celcius, rainfall during last 24 hours and total rainfall in mm since June 1, 2010 and departure from normal for the season.]

The departure from normal for Mumbai also matches with the general observation of almost continuous rains since June 2010.

What is interesting is that Ranchi, Patna, Lucknow, Indore (if we can broadly read them as the old Bihar / UP / MP areas) show a decent deficit rainfall from normal.  Will this have an impact on the agricultural production?

Generally, Kerala and North East areas receive good rains.  The above table shows deficit rainfall for the season in both Trivandrum and Guwahati. 

Business Line's editorial (Furrows of worry, Business Line, August 16, 2010) comes to mind.

With nearly two-thirds of the southwest monsoon season behind us, it is time to take stock of the kharif crop situation. The news is at once good and disappointing from the point of view of overall precipitation and area planted. Although the all-India area weighted rainfall is still in negative territory as of mid-August, 28 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions have had excess (nine subdivisions) or normal (19 subdivisions) precipitation so far. But the disaggregated picture is somewhat worrisome. Even as Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh as also Gangetic West Bengal face deficiency, Punjab, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Eastern Rajasthan, currently in the normal category, risk falling into deficient category. This raises the possibility of yield losses and the concomitant effect on production of cereals and cash-crops, although it may be premature to put a number on this.

In my school days, I used to read in text books that Indian agriculture is dependent upon monsoons.  A few decades down the line, it appears not much has changed at the ground level.  What has changed is that the population has exploded, joint families have split, flat culture has taken root, life styles have changed and requirement for more water has arisen.  Water table across the country has gone down and States fight with each other (eg Karnataka Vs T.Nadu; Kerala Vs T.Nadu) for water.  We would rather allow river water to go waste (into ocean) but won't allow it into neighbouring States! 

Crop cultivation patterns need to change in a very big way - it requires a big effort in educating the agrarian population to move away from crops which consume water in a big way into those which consume less water or use better methods (eg drip irrigation) of using water.  These steps would improve water table, reduce uncertainty of loss of crop - either due to inadequate rainfall or drought etc.

The rainy season is not yet over.  Hummingbird hopes that the deficit areas too receive rains, but not of the unseasonal variety and farming community doesn't suffer.  

Rains...and furrows of worry

Before the rains started, we were looking eagerly as to when the rains would start.  Hummingbird was also one of the avid watchers with a series of posts "Clouds have come ... can the rains be far behind?).

As expected rains came.  Unlike previous year(s), it has been raining quite heavily, almost all through the rainy season.  The last time, Hummingbird saw something like a clear sun, was on August 14, 2010.

It's the last sunset which I saw... and that was on Aug 14, 2010

Thereafter, it has continued to rain especially in the evenings.  The rainy season seems to be quite active all through the country.  Heavy rains have been predicted for the hilly regions of north-west (Business Line, August 19, 2010).

Raining... all over India!

There have been floods in Pakistan, Leh etc.  Looking at the India map and the cloud formation, it appears that more rains are ahead, this season. 

Business Line reports that the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has assessed increased chances for above-normal rainfall for the region extending from South Asia to the Maritime Continent and this would bring the south-east coast of India and the Bay of Bengal under rain cover during this period.  The CPC has extended the wet weather outlook to the following week (August 24-30) as well, with the rain cover over India's south-east coast digging further into East-central India.

The prevailing La Nina condition would be more long-lasting than thought earlier and may continue until early 2012, according to updated forecasts from the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) reports Business Line (La Nina may extend into early 2012, say Japanese experts, August 18, 2010).  This is likely to give above-normal rainfall in many parts of the world including India and predictions are that we may have a colder than normal winter.  

Today it rained again, quite heavily in the evening in Mumbai and visibility was poor as I left for home.

Heavy rains and poor visibility... (blackberry picture taken from a moving vehicle)

On the positive side, good rains have brought some respite from the drinking water crisis.  They have also brought cheer to automobile companies with improved sentiment and boosting auto sales.  On the agricultural side, while the kharif harvest could be better than in 2009, it may be far from bumper. And the price implications are self-evident, says Business Line in an Editorial (Furrows of worry, August 16, 2010).  With inflation raging uncontrolled, prospect of a food price linked boost to inflation is worrying.  Some excerpts from the Business Line editorial: 

The risks to crop size and quality will increase if the forecast of more rains in the rest of August and in September turns out to be correct.

Excessive rains, especially when crops near maturation, can be damaging. So, while the ensuing kharif harvest may be better than in 2009, it is unlikely to be anywhere near bumper.

The price implications of the emerging scenario are self-evident. Do not expect any miraculous relief from high food prices. There may be a slight softening of prices in October, with the harvest and arrival pressure; but the sentiment can quickly change for the worse.

The Government must be in a state of readiness to deploy the buffer stocks of rice and wheat for effective market intervention. The poor will need a credible and effective safety net in the form of access to food (fine cereals, pulses, cooking oil and sugar) at affordable prices.

Liberal, duty-free imports will have to continue. Policymakers must exercise abundant caution while considering changes in trade and tariff policies.

Globally too, grain prices have rallied to new highs because of weather aberrations in some regions, including the Black Sea port area and Canada's grain-bowl of Saskatchewan. This is raising the spectre of a 2007/2008-like food price situation. And such price cues can cause ripples here too.

Unlike in the past when droughts were more or less common, this year it has been raining... and raining almost regularly all through the season.  Hummingbird fervently hopes that farmers don't lose their crops due to unseasonal rains or too much rains.  It could lead to large scale misery, not only to the farming community but to the nation as a whole, as the inflation monster which has been dancing all around without any control so far, would get an added boost due to crop failure.

Clouds have come ... can the rains be far behind - Part 10

I remembered the thick dark clouds which I saw last evening on the way back from office.  But today morning when I started for office, I did not see dark clouds, atleast of the variety which I saw last evening.

A short while after this, I saw a big plane about to land.

In the Santa Cruz airport area, though there were large clouds, they were not dark enough.  Nothing of the sort which will indicate that rains are imminent.

In the evening on the way back home, saw the sun set.  It was a grand scene, one which I haven't seen for years.  Well, if we have to see the sun set, then we should also leave office in time!  I was not feeling well and left around 6.30 pm and was compensated with the nice scene of the clouds trying to hide the sun behind them, of the birds going in the groups, ...  it was a grand scene.  In a few places, at times, I felt as if, something bright is burning at a distance.. the sun was grand.

The birds too were going back to their nests... but unlike humans, they were going together.  Who knows.. the market economy may not have touched their kingdom and maybe they are still living happily without worrying about the cost of living...

The sun was setting and even then the powerful rays pierced through the cloud formations, showing clearly who the boss is!  Oh! What did I see there in the distant horizon... the clouds showed themselves in various shapes and sizes, ... what does that look like... is it a mountain.. Mmm.. it looks like a river - with the water moving slowly ... maybe it also enjoyed the sun set in the Western sky and so it moved slowly.

 

In some places it looked pretty bright, as if there is a big fire in that area.

As the direction of the road changed to some extent, I came a bit closer to the sun...

I said one final namaste to Surya Bhagavan. And then I finally moved away from the western side.  As I took the right turn, I moved away from the direction of the sun with this final photo.

And that's the end of the day.. no rains today.. but was witness to a wonderful sunset.

Clouds have come ... can the rains be far behind - Part 9

Today I saw more clouds than in the past days.. they were darker too.  Took a few photos in the morning (around 9-9.30 am) on the way to office. Thought it might rain a bit.  It did rain for a short while today afternoon, but not much.

On the way back home, I saw thick formation of clouds, darker in colour than in past days. 

At this stage, it drizzled a bit.  Thought it might rain heavily.  But nothing of that sort happened.  It continued to drizzle lightly for a short while and then stopped.  Here and there, sun was visible from behind the dark clouds.

Even as the drizzle stopped, I saw a plane go towards the dark clouds... it entered the dark clouds and then disappeared from view.

Looking at the dark clouds, I thought it might rain heavily tomorrow.  Let's see what happens.

Clouds have come ... can the rains be far behind - Part 8

Last night (June 5, 2010), it drizzled.  It was mid-night or past mid-night ... the chillness that came through the balcony and the water carried by the breeze, woke me up. 

Today (June 6, 2010), it was cloudy as I started for Andheri. 

Once I reached Andheri, it rained mildly.  I noticed a group of children playing on the road in Amboli (opposite to Sairam Mandir) and enjoying the rains.  How sad.. I missed to snap them as my auto rickshaw sped away.  I compensated this loss a little bit by taking two photos of children playing in rains, inside a residential complex, which was my next halt for the day.

The rains brought down the temperature visibly atleast in Andheri where I was at that point in time.  It might rain in the coming days with increased intensity and we will know if Mumbai city is geared to welcome the rains.