It is too early to say we will change our stance!

It is too early to say we will change our stance.. well it's RBI Governor D. Subbarao who said this recently.  The context - inflation.  Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn says going soft on inflation could involve huge risk.   With food inflation scorching ahead at around 10%, the fight against inflation is only going to intensify.

Immorality in Indian politics: Swaminathan Aiyar

Hummingbird has been watching the growing anger against corruption over the years.  Oflate the anger of the common man is growing by leaps and bounds and the response of the ruling elites does not appear to reflect a proper understanding of the situation at the ground level.  While generally anger against corruption and corrupt people is considered to be high among the "middle classes" and honesty is considered a middle class virtue, the kind of people who came for the Ramlila agitation is an eye opener.  While traditional wisdom says that poor are more bothered about their livelihood issues, over the last few years, Hummingbird has watched with interest, the growing awareness (improved literacy levels and better media access) amongst the poor and lower segments of the Society on national issues besides the bread and butter issues.

In this interview, Swaminathan Aiyar talks about corruption and anger of middle class.  If corruption derails the growth agenda of the nation, it would push back the country by a few decades.  One only hopes, the country gets on with its focus on economics coupled with better governance. 

It may be Baba Ramdev today. It could be any of us tomorrow.

Came across two interesting articles, not in the discredited mainstream media (MSM), but in blogs.  covering the fast of Baba Ramdev.  If time permits, please have a look at these two links.

1. Baba Ramdev - a few thoughts (Link - http://centreright.in/2011/06/baba-ramdev-%E2%80%93-a-few-thoughts/)
2. The fast & the spurious (Link - http://www.mediacrooks.com/2011/06/fast-spurious.html)
   

Hummingbird broadly concurs with the theme of these articles, though one can dis-agree with some aspects. 

Hummingbird watched the entire police action starting from 12 mid-night till 3.30 am today morning.  It was sad to watch the various (contradictory) announcements like -

We are ready to sweep the medals...!

Even the usually dour Janab Cynic Ali could not help but smile looking at this cartoon in Mint (Sep 30, 2010). 

(Source:  Mint, September 30, 2010)

Recently KPMG identified 3 projects (KG-D6 project, 4,000 MW Mundra plant and IGI Airport Expansion at New Delhi) out of one hundred examples of great projects that are at different stages of development across the world.    

Hummingbird wonders if we have done anything well and within the right time, except for a few projects like Delhi Metro etc.  The efficiency and energy which we see in the private sector with clear incentive structure for good performance, is generally absent when government ends up implementing big projects.  We usually have delays, himalayan corruption, etc where Government is directly involved.   Sadly, that's the state of affairs of this country. 

Hummingbird lives in hope.  He still looks forward to better days... when this great country will be ruled by enlightened and visionary politicians and honest bureaucrats.  A time in the near future when we won't become the laughing stock of the world.  He is not asking for the best in the world.. he would be very happy to have something better than we have today...

Why are you always following me..?

A picture is worth a thousand words, is an old idiom.  Janab Cynic Ali could not help but smile looking at this cartoon in Mint (Sep 16, 2010).

Source:  Mint, Sep 16, 2010

Janab Cynic Ali remembers an old dialogue from Yes Minister -

Sometimes one is forced to consider the possibility that affairs are being conducted in a manner which, all things being considered and making all possible allowances is, not to put too fine a point on it, perhaps not entirely straightforward.

Well, he doesn't want to translate and give the meaning of this dialogue.  Before Janab Saheb went, he remembered this dialogue -

Hacker: Are you saying that winking at corruption is government policy?

Sir Humphrey: No, no, Minister! It could never be government policy. That is unthinkable! Only government practice.

 

Hacker: You're a cynic, Humphrey!

Sir Humphrey: A cynic is what an idealist calls a realist.

Janab Saheb wondered where this country is heading.  Being a old man, he preferred to listen to radio.  He closed the doors slowly and switched on the radio.  He was happy to listen to an old Tamil song.  In the silence of the night, Hummingbird overheard him humming a MGR song - "Ethanai kaalam dhaan yematruvaar indha naatile" from the Tamil film: Malai Kallan, 1954 (approx translation - for how long will cheaters exist in the country). 

Well, as usual, Hummingbird is optimistic.  He says that it may be dark outside.  But the sun will rise tomorrow and the darkness will go.

Confirming the worst suspicions..!

Came across an interesting article "Corruption in Taiwan" in Economist (July 22, 2010). Some excerpts from the article -

RUMOURS of corruption among the judiciary have long flourished in Taiwan. Yet the news on July 14th that three high-court judges and a prosecutor had been detained amid allegations that they took bribes to fix the outcome of a high-profile case, has brought public outrage to boiling point. On July 18th Taiwan’s highest-level judicial official, Lai In-jaw, who is in charge of the island’s supreme and lower courts chose to resign because of the outcry over the case.

For jaded Taiwanese observers the latest developments merely confirm long-held suspicions of graft in their insular and inscrutable judiciary. “The significance of this case is that it makes all the rumours a reality,” said Yang Tai-shuenn, a politics professor at Taipei’s Chinese Culture University. “It will push the government to do something.”

Well the article says this news brought public outrage to boiling point.

Mmm... How sad, wonders Janab Cynic Ali.  He still finds it difficult to understand why his dear brothers and sisters of Taiwan are angry. Please cool down, he says.  Come to India and enjoy corruption, Indian ishtyle. He is convinced that if our Taiwanese brothers and sisters visit India, then they will stop feeling bad about corruption in their country.  

In India, we have reached the state of Nirvana long back and nothing will push our government to do something... why something.. they won't do anything, he tells the world confidently. If only our Taiwanese brothers & sisters listen to Janab Saheb, their tensions will go away instantly - Amrutanjan style - It's gone.. poye poochu.. poyinde..!

Did BHEL donate Rs.25 crore to Chautala’s party?

Sriman Cynic was surprised to read a news item that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is probing allegations that former Haryana chief minister Sri Om Prakash Chautala, his then chief secretary Sri L.M. Goyal and others had favoured state-owned power equipment maker Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) in awarding a contract for setting up two power units in 2002 (CBI probes Chautala’s role in awarding contract to Bhel, Mint, August 18, 2010).

Is it a clear case of corruption or witch hunt?

The issue is whether BHEL donated Rs.25 crore to Sri Chautala’s party, the Indian National Lok Dal, and gave Rs.2 crore to Sri Goyal, who was Haryana chief secretary in 2000-02, to get the project?

While private players paying money to get contracts is old news, a PSU paying money to a political party to get orders is something which Sriman Cynic hasn't heard before.  Somehow he innocently thinks that the tender route which is adopted by government is to be followed only if private parties are involved and need not be followed if the contract is given to a PSU or government department.

Sriman Cynic wonders, maybe he is wrong.  It would have been better if the Haryana Government had floated a tender and placed the order with the lowest bidder.  But it is still beyond the understanding of Sriman Cynic that BHEL, a PSU, paid money to a political party for getting this contract.  With C & AG auditing the books of accounts, Sriman Cynic wonders how this would be possible?  Rs.27 crore is not a small amount of money and so cash payments are out of question.  Assuming they did pay, how did they adjust this money in books?  Possible course could be over invoicing / under invoicing with parties related to politicians.  Sriman Cynic is scratching his head as to what is the incentive to BHEL for getting this contract?

This has led Sriman Cynic to think if its a case of political witch hunt?  But in the process should the name of a reputed PSU like BHEL be tarnished, wonders Sriman Cynic. He also wonders, if the news is indeed true, what could be the implications for governance in public sector institutions?  Maybe it would result in further tightening of rules and stifle decision making.  Vigilance officials would be breathing down the necks of decision makers.  Overall, Sriman Cynic is sad.

What can I say..?  Did not Mahatma Gandhi say - "My faith is brightest in the midst of impenetrable darkness".  Well, I can only say, Cynicji, please don't be disheartened by any news.  Notwithstanding our corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen, we are still growing.  Like that, slowly but steadily, one day our governance standards would also improve and we won't be reading news of this variety.  If not in our generation, atleast in the next generation.

So, Sriman Cynicji, please keep your cool and let's wait and work for a better era.

Guilty will not be spared..

Congress President Sonia Gandhi on Thursday said those found guilty of corruption in the upcoming Commonwealth Games will be punished once the event is over, reports ANI (Source:  CWG Scam: Sonia Gandhi says those guilty will not be spared).

Janab Cynic Ali is wondering whether it is the usual talk of law will take its own course and no one would be spared, howsoever he is mighty etc.  Of course, he is yet to recover from the news that Ramalinga Raju was granted bail (Source: Business Line, August 19, 2010).  If a person who publicly acknowledged the wrong doings is not yet punished and nearly 20 months after his arrest he also gets a bail, and if the case is not yet finished, when will the corrupt be punished in the CWG scam, ponders Janab Cynic Ali?

Any answers? 

Well, let us tell Janab Saheb, that whatever happened in all the previous scams, will happen now too.  Cheer up Janab Saheb, this is modern India.  Mera Bharat Mahan!

I-T staff to strike work ...

It is now more than three weeks since 'Sriman Cynic' stopped reading newspapers.  Cynic normally thinks that nothing great happens if we stop reading newspapers or stop watching Indian news channels - both in his humble view heap garbage (by default) - though at times, he finds something useful or intellectually stimulating appearing in the Indian media.  In any case, Cynic says he intends to quickly scan though the backlog over the next few days.  

This headline in Business Line (July 15, 2010) "struck" Cynic - IT staff to strike work today.  

It is Cynic's guess that corruption on that date (in India) would have gone down by atleast a few percentage points!  

Cynic says that in other countries, government officials do good to the society, by being honest.  In India, government officials do good to the society, by striking work!  Atleast on that day, they cannot collect baksheesh!!

Cynic is convinced that we cannot eliminate corruption in India, where everyone from top to bottom is corrupt.  But he feels that what we can pray for is frequent strikes by government departments.  Well, that's the only way he feels we can hope to reduce corruption level in India.  

Challenges for the future...

Some days back, I received a mail from a senior colleague forwarding an article written by Dr Farrukh Saleem (September 2007) under the series "Capital Suggestion".  This blog post is an outcome of our correspondence on that article. To start with, some excerpts from the article written by Dr Farrukh Saleem.

In 2004, India became the 3rd most attractive foreign direct investment destination. Pakistan wasn't even in the top 25 countries. In 2004, the United Nations, the representative body of 192 sovereign member states, had requested the Election Commission of India to assist the UN in the holding elections in Al Jumhuriyah al Iraqiyah and Dowlat-e Eslami-ye Afghanestan. Why the Election Commission of India and not the Election Commission of Pakistan? After all, Islamabad is closer to Kabul than is Delhi.

Imagine, 12 percent of all American scientists are of Indian origin; 38 percent of doctors in America are Indian; 36 percent of NASA scientists are Indians; 34 percent of Microsoft employees are Indians; and 28 percent of IBM employees are Indians.

Our culture, our traditions and our cuisine are all the same. We watch the same movies and sing the same songs. What is it that Indians have and we don't?

INDIANS ELECT THEIR LEADERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And also to mention: They think of Construction of own nation, unlike other nations who are just concerned with destruction of others...

Simple answer to why the Indians fare better than the Pakistanis - They don't focus on religion all the time and neither do they spend time and money in devising ways to kill their own and everyone else over religion.

To me it appeared to be written by a Pakistani who (probably) feels bad that his country is not growing as much as India.  It broadly highlights some of the positives about India in the recent past. Now, let me state my observations on this article.

India’s leap forward
In my own life time/living memory, we have moved from being a scarcity economy to a surplus economy.  This is a positive development. During the same time, Pakistan has been repeatedly called a failed state.  The failed states index ranks Pakistan as No.10 in their list.  The Economist calls Pakistan the world's most dangerous place.  Thus, from a common (rational) Pakistani perspective, India has galloped ahead - by concentrating on economics instead of religion.  Of course, there are some people who would like to group India too to the list of failed states.

Important challenges

While I agree that India has grown a lot, especially in comparison to Pakistan, I also feel there are some important negatives, which are crying for attention and which if unaddressed can derail the economic growth.  I will list some of them, as I have observed.

Widespread corruption

Widespread corruption is killing the ordinary people who need to interact with government machinery at every level. Every time I handle tax work, my blood boils at the brazenness with which men (and even women) demand money.  There is no shame either.  A few months back, one of the audit firm's articled clerk told about how her friends feel proud that their 'papa' comes home every day with money or things in kind (like new mobile phones etc).  Thus, not only the adults have lost their sense of shame - even children have lost it.  These are the same boys and girls who are going to rule the India of tomorrow.  Such people will not hesitate to even sell the motherland. 

Justice delayed

Winning (somehow) has become important.  End results are everything.  Means can be dumped in the Bay of Bengal.  This is today's India.  The legal system has become rotten.  There is endless wait for justice.  Justice delayed is justice denied.  But with lawyers becoming liars and seeking endless adjournments, the only people who make money out of the litigation are the legal fraternity.  I remember, even during my school days (1970s/80s) the first response of any God loving or God fearing lawyer would be to first find out what is the truth and then advise reconciliation instead of getting into a legal battle.  Today, the first response of a majority of the legal profession is not to find out what the truth is but how to make money – even if it is by cheating the opposite party – never mind if the opposing party is speaking the truth.  This situation has only reinforced my thoughts that even in the worst situation we should never enter courts. 

Cooking books of accounts

We have examples of how Chartered Accountants (CAs) collude with promoters to cook up accounts.  Whether it is the Satyam issue which came out into the open with promoter taking the blame or the innumerable mini Satyams that are all lying dormant (with active collusion of the CA profession), the level to which CAs have fallen has to be seen to be believed.  They have mortgaged their souls, forgotten their commitments and forsaken the principles of morality to make money for themselves (and for the promoters whom they represent).  Today, the dharma for lawyers and CAs is not to stick to truth but to make their clients win (incidentally, lawyers and CAs make their money too in the process).

Will the cream of our society constitute Yama Loka

Mahatma Gandhi said that business without ethics would destroy us.  The so called cream of the society comprising politicians, bureaucrats, engineers, doctors, businessmen, lawyers, judges, chartered accountants, .... you name them - each one of them is proving to be rascals.  Our scriptures talk about hell.  Seeing the things that are happening, I often wonder whether the Yama Loka would comprise only the cream of India.

Damaging environment

I am not sure if the Indian development story is sustainable.   We are busy clogging the roads with more and more private vehicles.   I find it extremely difficult to cross the road.  The footpaths have either vanished or become smaller.  It is impossible to cross the highway.  I have seen road(s) suddenly become one-ways with never ending traffic - it is impossible for ordinary people to cross over to the other side.  Looks like roads are there only for cars and vehicles.  It gives an impression that we have forgotten that there are large numbers of people who don't own vehicles and they also have equal rights over public spaces.  Do we need this type of development which spoils the environment?  I am not too sure. 

Galloping health care costs & doctors as commission agents

Health care costs have galloped beyond measure.  How many people can afford today's costs?  Almost every doctor looks to me like Lord Yama's agent.  Gone are the days when out of sheer faith and trust we used to consume medicine given by family doctor.  Today the trust is gone and we go for 2nd and 3rd opinion. 

You go for any ailment, doctors will prescribe a series of tests to be done – never mind if tests were done very recently.  The relevance of these tests is also not clear.  Costly tests, irrelevant tests, repeated tests…. there is a sense of revulsion and also helplessness today.  I hear again and again from people who feel that doctors get commission for prescribing medicines – giving rise to a strong suspicion that doctors have sold their souls to the drug manufacturers.  .  Strangely, I have noticed that the medicines prescribed by a doctor would be available only in the pharmacy located near his/her clinic. 

I have noticed one more trend and that is doctors becoming members of agencies like Amway and prescribing these product(s) which are not only costly but also to be bought only from them.  There is a clear conflict of interest – but that is not disclosed.  I am not talking about quality of the products of Amway – they may genuinely be good – but the fact that doctors make extra money by selling them is something which they don’t disclose. 

There are instances where doctors act as agents for Hospital chains.  You go for some ailment – they will tell you to undergo some tests and then get you admitted to their preferred hospital and you will end up with some operations (by-pass is most common).  We can make a reasonable presumption that they are getting commission from the Hospital chain.  Commission need not be in money form – it can be in the form of gifts, foreign tours to exotic locations often disguised as international conference(s) etc. 

I remember in my childhood days, we had a family doctor – Dr P. Vadhiraja Rao.  He will charge from rich – but will give free medicines to the poor.  We ourselves were from a poor family and mostly he used to give away medicines free.  Once or twice a year he used to take money from us – whenever we could afford.  We had blind / total faith in him.  If I give you medicine, you simply take it – that’s what he used to tell us and we used to believe him.  Today, where are such doctors? 

If medical college seats are sold for Rs.20 or 30 or 40 lakh, and if students have to take loans to become a doctor, they need to recover / repay the loans.  Then they start charging exorbitant fees, prescribe unwanted medicines and get medical tests done – whether relevant or not… I wonder where the poor would go for treatment.  No wonder, people like Ramdev Baba are becoming increasingly popular – we cannot afford to get treatment in private hospitals – we are afraid of going to government hospitals as it is generally believed to offer a direct route to Yama Loka – so the only alternative is to look for ways and means to avoid getting sick (Yoga is helpful to some extent) and try out home medicines / traditional medicines as the first line of defense.

Unaffordable housing costs

Housing has simply become unaffordable to a vast majority of the people.  Today is it possible for anyone to get a decent 2 BHK flat in Mumbai for anything less than Rs.50 lakh?  Even for this we have to go to the outskirts of the city.  How many can afford to have flats?  The end result is that we end up borrowing to the maximum extent to buy a roof under which we think we can live safely.  But can we build castles on debt?  I am not sure. 

Changing attitudes – right to live… somehow?

Around 2 months back while travelling in an auto rickshaw back to home, looking at a high rise building which we were crossing the auto driver said that when there is an earthquake, this building will fall.  I could see a “glee” in his face – as if he “wants” the high rise building to fall.  This is not an opinion on the quality of the construction – rather there is an expectation that this building should fall.  I could sense from his conversation that he clearly feels “they are rich” and “we are poor”.  While he may be law abiding today, whether he will remain law abiding in future – if he gets an opportunity is something we can’t tell.

Today there is some hope that with some serious hard work, people can make some money.  Whether they are rich or poor, people want to give some decent education to their children.  But the exorbitant price rise is stretching the limits/patience of people.  Around 6-8 months back, I found that one of the regular auto rickshaws used by me was consistently charging higher auto fares than those charged by other autos.  When I asked him, the auto driver said – “Sir, we have families and we also have a right to live”.  He did not dispute the fact that his auto meter is tampered. 

In olden days, people used to restrict their expenses within their incomes.  Today, expenses are taken as fixed, and income is to be increased, if required, by foul means.  This can have serious consequences for the future.  If people, who want to make money legally, feel they are deprived of the same or they don’t get enough opportunities etc., then it is bound to create resentment vis-à-vis those whom they perceive as rich.

Large middle class and conspicuous consumption

In the 1970s/80s we had a very marginal rich class and a huge chunk of the population was part of the scarcity economy.  Thus, almost everyone was alike – we were all struggling together to make a living.  Thus, resentment, if any was only towards the political class.  Today, what we find is that while the liberalization has changed the position a bit better for a decent size of the population (which is now classified as middle class) around 200 to 300 million people are still struggling for their livelihood issues.  The inflation which is raging is killing them.  My worry is that the disparities are much higher now and much more visible today than it was in the past.  This can lead to resentment and anger.

Can we have islands of prosperity in an ocean of misery? 

An entire generation (or two) of people are coming up who have never experienced what is suffering.  Can they sustain a serious economic downturn?  I am not sure. 

From being a country which was frugal, humble and which cared for the poor and downtrodden, we are changing to the other extreme. 

I find serious 'insensitivity' of the ruling class to sufferings of the poor and poor governance issues (incl serious Maoist insurgency across large areas of the country and widespread infiltration by Bangladeshis). 

The huge population can be a blessing and also a curse (if not properly handled).  While India is ahead in the growth curve vis-à-vis Pakistan, we are definitely much behind China and many other countries, in almost all indicators.  And that is a cause of serious worry.

Given all these challenges including linguistic chauvinism, regionalism, unequal economic development leading to migration from rural to urban centres and from centres of low economic growth/opportunity to centres which are doing well economically etc (South and West are doing much better vis-à-vis East and pockets of North like UP/Bihar), I often wonder whether this country will remain united - 50 years down the line?  I am not sure. 

Our rulers (irrespective of parties), unfortunately don't inspire confidence.  It is a mystery, how we are growing, inspite of numerous hurdles.  Sorry for sounding negative.  Sensex @ 18k or 20k doesn't excite me.  Can we have islands of prosperity in an ocean of misery?  When the inequality dramatically goes up, it would lead to riots on the streets. 

Tears of the poor worry me

How long will the meek remain meek?  Tears of the poor worry me.  Today what we see is predominantly tears of the poor and downtrodden who don’t have voice.  But, think for a moment, how much time does it take for resentment to turn into a wave of anger and hatred?  It can wipe out decades of hard work and India can very easily get clubbed with Pakistan as a failed state. 

While this was my broad response to the article forwarded, I got this response back which is quite interesting –

I am not so appalled by the state of the society though all the individual facts may be appalling. Perhaps I may not know or understand the nuances of sociology or building of a just society, but I accept the fact that society will always remain an imperfect one, no matter how much we advance. Good part is we deal not just with society but with individuals too, many of whom bring smile to our face, give meaning to our life and some sense of purpose.

Yes, we can not be at ease given the circumstances, but can we be at peace with ourselves as long as we spare some efforts for making a difference?

I think that's what our Pakistani journalist friend has tried to do.

Conclusion

There are serious challenges to India as a state.  There are serious challenges to families in our society – irrespective of community / region / class.  Joint families are breaking and these are leading to new sets of problems.  The mindset required to adjust to others is vanishing.  Tolerance for differing opinions/views is going down.  People are living longer, living alone but facing the challenges on account of inflation and high health care costs.  Today, apparently there is wealth creation.  Everyone seems to have money - if not everyone atleast a good chunk of the population is having money.  But unfortunately, even as I see glitter outside, I see hollowness inside the core.  The development and growth structure appears brittle and is based on weak foundations of poor governance.

In his article, Dr Farrukh Saleem is giving example about the Ambanis.  Should we emulate the Ambanis or the Tatas?  I for one would believe that following Tatas would be a more appropriate way and would be in line with our Indian value system - atleast the one that got us independence.  One or more or many or most or all things can go wrong or right depending upon our luck.  We all feel getting rich (somehow) is most important.  The ends are important - but the means to the end are also important, if we want to have an equitable and just society.  I agree it is impossible to have full equality.  But atleast the gap between the rich and poor can be bridged to some extent.  

It is difficult to even visualize a situation where the common man and woman of this country are going to actually have a voice where in they can be heard and some course correction is done by the rulers.  Till then, it appears that we have no choice but to be at peace with ourselves and also bring peace to people around us by sparing some efforts for making a difference to their lives.